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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-22 13:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 11:50:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 09:07:35 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-22 13:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA INTENSIFYING QUICKLY... ...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 the center of PATRICIA was located near 14.7, -103.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 8A
2015-10-22 13:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221149 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...PATRICIA INTENSIFYING QUICKLY... ...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 103.0W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 103.0 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane will be crossing the coast of Mexico in the hurricane warning area by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Patricia is likely to become a major hurricane later today or tonight. Thereafter, additional strengthening is forecast until landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan/Roberts
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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-22 11:15:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 08:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 09:07:35 GMT
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-10-22 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia has become significantly better organized overnight, with an eye evident on infrared imagery, and the system now has well-defined convective banding features. The initial intensity estimate is set at 75 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at 0600 UTC to account for the increased organization since that time. This is also in good agreement with the most recent ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is strong, as evidenced by the expanding cirrus canopy. The hurricane has been moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, or around 295/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast philosophy. Patricia is likely to move around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area during the next day or so. By late Friday, the system should turn toward the north-northeast as it moves between the high and a trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. The official track forecast is nudged very slightly to the west to account for a slight westward shift in the GFS/ECMWF consensus. This is also very close to the overall dynamical model consensus. The environment appears to be very conducive for strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, with some increase in south-southwesterly shear and some mid-tropospheric drying later on Friday. An earlier 37 GHz GPM image showed a cyan ring around the eye, which often presages rapid intensification. Given that, and the currently favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, rapid strengthening (30 kt over 24 h) is forecast through tonight followed by a slower pace of intensification up to landfall. This is in good agreement with the latest DSHIPS prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.3N 103.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.3N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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