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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-10-21 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211439 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Conventional and microwave satellite data show that Patricia remains poorly organized. The low-level circulation is elongated from north to south, and there is little evidence of a tight inner core. While the convection is vigorous, it is occurring mainly in an almost linear area west and south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Patricia is moving faster toward the west with an initial motion of 270/10. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After about 24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep- layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario and forecasts landfall along the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track, and it lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Continued light shear and warm sea surface temperatures are favorable conditions for Patricia to strengthen if the storm can overcome its current disorganized condition. Based on the premise that this will happen, the intensity forecast is identical to that of the previous advisory in calling for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and continue strengthening through landfall. Several of the guidance models forecast a higher peak intensity than the official, and rapid intensification remains a possibility given the favorable environment. After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. There are no changes to the watches for the coast of Mexico at this time. Warnings my be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. It should be noted that several of the global models develop a low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in four to five days. At this time, it appears that this system will be a non-tropical low that absorbs the remnants and moisture of Patricia moving northeastward across Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.9N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.4N 99.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-21 16:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 12.9, -97.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-10-21 16:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...PATRICIA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 97.5W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 97.5 West. Patricia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is likely to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-10-21 16:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 211438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 34(43) X(43) X(43) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 31(61) X(61) X(61) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 32(66) X(66) X(66) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 25(49) 7(56) X(56) X(56) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) 15(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 8( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) P MALDONADO 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-10-21 16:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 96.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.4N 99.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 97.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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