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Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-06-26 04:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 260246 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 5( 6) 51(57) 12(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 21(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 1(23) 1(24) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 3(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-06-26 04:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260244 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.3W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.3W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 105.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 19.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
2017-06-25 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2017 20:43:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2017 20:43:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-06-25 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora continues to exhibit well-defined convective spiral bands, with a developing CDO. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0 so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical cyclone will be in a low-shear environment with anticyclonic upper-level flow for several days. These dynamical factors would favor intensification. Waters beneath Dora, however, will begin to cool soon and the system should encounter significantly cooler waters within 48 hours or so. Therefore the window of opportunity for strengthening is decreasing, especially since the cyclone is moving a little faster than before. The official intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus and still shows Dora becoming a hurricane within 24 hours. The latest center fixes yield a faster motion of around 300/12 kt. A well-established subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should produce a continued west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5 a more westward track is likely due to the system weakening and becoming a shallow vortex. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, close to, or a little south of, the latest model consensus. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-25 22:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 the center of Dora was located near 15.7, -103.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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