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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-06-25 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been intensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been increasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday. Microwave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some primitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the increased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5 from TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. There are no obvious environmental impediments to further strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in good agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a hurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much cooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the cyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The latest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement with the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models. The initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A large mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should continue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple of days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once the cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level winds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track, resulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore. Only cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-06-25 10:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 250837 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 32(41) 2(43) X(43) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 28(33) 3(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-25 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DORA... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 the center of Dora was located near 14.7, -100.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 2
2017-06-25 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 250837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DORA... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 100.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 100.9 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dora could become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-06-25 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 100.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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