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Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-06-26 10:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260840 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.3W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.3W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
2017-06-26 04:49:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 02:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 02:49:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-06-26 04:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260246 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora's cloud pattern has continued to quickly improve this evening. Several well-defined spiral bands wrap around the center and the CDO has become more symmetric and expanded since the previous advisory. Recent microwave imagery suggest that an eye feature has formed within the CDO. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS supported an intensity of 55 kt at 0000 UTC, but with the continued improved structure, the initial intensity has been set to 60 kt for this advisory. Dora is forecast to move over warm water and remain within a low shear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours. These conditions should allow for additional intensification and Dora is likely to become a hurricane by early Monday. The tropical cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters in about a day, which should begin the weakening process. A faster rate of spin down is expected by late Tuesday as Dora moves over even colder waters and into a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the ICON consensus through 36 hours, and is in best agreement with the LGEM guidance later in the period. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn westward. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies a little south of the TVCN model consensus out of respect for the typically reliable ECMWF which is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 17.2N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.2N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 19.8N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 19.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-26 04:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 the center of Dora was located near 16.4, -104.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 5
2017-06-26 04:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 ...DORA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Dora is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday. Weakening is forecast to begin Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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