je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-20 10:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 875 WTNT23 KNHC 200857 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...AND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT... EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET... MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR...AND WEST OF NEW HAVEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK * KINGS POINT NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK * WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK * WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-20 10:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Deep convection has increased near the center of Grace overnight with improved banding structure over the eastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt and SFMR winds of 58 kt during the aircraft's final pass through the northern portion of the storm prior to 06Z. Based on those observations, the initial wind speed was increased to 60 kt on the 06Z intermediate advisory, and it remains at that value for now. Grace is close to re-gaining hurricane strength, and the next reconnaissance mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning. Grace will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of Campeche today. That, along with light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, are expected to allow for re-intensification until landfall in mainland Mexico tonight. The updated intensity forecast brings Grace to a 75-kt hurricane in 12 hours, and the storm could be slightly stronger when it makes landfall overnight. By 24 h, the center is forecast to be inland, and Grace will likely already to have begun to weaken. Rapid weakening should occur on Saturday as Grace moves farther inland over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, and the circulation is likely to dissipate in around 48 hours. The remnants of Grace are expected to move into the Pacific where they are likely to spawn a new tropical cyclone. The cyclone has been moving westward or 270/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-southwestward until dissipation occurs in a couple days. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.7N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
grace
storm
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-08-20 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 998 WTNT22 KNHC 200851 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 93.3W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 93.3W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 93.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
grace
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-20 05:00:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200259 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The satellite presentation on Henri this evening continues to exhibit a persistent bursting pattern, with the center estimated to be just to the north and west of the coldest cloud tops which occasionally have been below -80 C in the overshooting tops. This current satellite presentation is primarily due to continued moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear, which is forcing the convection underneath the cirrus canopy down-shear of the low-level center, as seen on a 2230 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. While the mid-level vortex with the convection also remains tilted down-shear of the low-level center, it has not completely separated due to the persistent convection, preventing the low-level center from escaping poleward in more shallow low-level steering. Tonight's subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB/TAFB are in agreement with T3.5/55 kt and given that this value is near what the earlier Air Force Reconnaissance mission found, the latest intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. There is a bit of uncertainty determining if Henri has begun a more poleward motion since the center remains under the convective cirrus plume, but my best guess is now 285/9 kt. Over the next 12-24 hours, the mid- to upper-level ridging that has dominated the synoptic steering pattern for Henri the last few days will quickly break down, as a shortwave trough drops in from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and cuts off. This feature is now forecast to continue digging in to the west of Henri. To the east, a new mid-level ridge is also forecast to build in to the right of Henri. This synoptic pattern should draw the cyclone poleward with an acceleration to the north-northeast in the 24-48 h period. Afterwards, the aforementioned trough takes on a negative tilt to the southwest of Henri, helping to reorient the mid- to upper-level flow out of the south-southeast, and this flow could result in a slight leftward bend in the track between 48-72 h. The majority of guidance this cycle now is forecasting the mid-level ridge east of Henri to build poleward with the storm, blocking an easy path for the storm to stay on a more northeast heading out to sea. Consequently, the latest NHC forecast track now explicitly shows landfall in southeast Massachusetts at 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has come into better agreement, though there remain some leftward (UKMET) and rightward (ECMWF) outliers. The latest forecast track lies very close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) guidance, which is also very near the latest GFS forecast track. Data from the NOAA G-IV synoptic mission around Henri shows that just north of the tropical cyclone there remains some very dry mid-latitude air, which is being advected into the storm by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24-36 hours, this shear is forecast to gradual subside, as Henri moves near the center of an upper-level ridge axis. By 36-48 hours, the vertical wind shear is forecast to be under 10-kt by both the GFS- and ECWMF-based SHIPS guidance, while the storm is also traversing 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for strengthening beginning after 12 hours, and the rate of strengthening could be a bit quicker as the storm moves over the warm gulf stream waters between 36-48 hours. Thereafter, Henri will cross a very sharp SST gradient with sea-surface temperatures down below 23 C near the New England coast to the east of Long Island. Henri is forecast to begin weakening after 48 hours, but the storm could still be near hurricane intensity by the time Henri is forecast to be near the Northeast coastline. Transition to a post-tropical storm is expected to begin shortly thereafter which should be sometime in the 96-h to 120-h points as deep convection ceases over the storm over cold SSTs As noted previously, the wind field of Henri is expected to expand, especially as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough located to its west. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 29.8N 72.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200258 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST OF PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PROGRESSO TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
grace
storm
advisory
Sites : [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] next »