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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 17

2021-08-20 04:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 938 WTNT23 KNHC 200253 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 26

2021-08-19 22:57:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192057 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Grace has now been inland for almost 12 hours and the inner core structure has been gradually decaying. In fact, the low-level center is now partially exposed to the north of the mid-level vortex which still has the majority of the deep convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt this advisory, assuming a bit more weakening of the low-level center has occurred since 1800 UTC. Environmental conditions appear favorable for Grace to restrengthen after the storm moves offshore this evening. However, it will take a bit of time for the inner-core to reorganize before a faster rate of intensification can occur. After that process occurs, significant intensification is possible, and the latest intensity forecast makes Grace a hurricane again by 24 hours and is near the upper end of the intensity guidance by 36 hours when Grace will be just inland over Mexico. However, it remains possible that the storm could intensify more than indicated between the 24 and 36 hour points, when both the global and regional high-res hurricane model guidance suggests Grace will be near peak intensity. Grace is still moving a bit north of due west at 280/13 kt. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 6-12 hours and Grace should be emerging offshore of the western Yucatan Peninsula later this evening. Thereafter, a strong mid-level ridge oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of Grace is likely to steer the cyclone towards the west, and then west-southwest as it nears mainland Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, staying close to the multi-model consensus aids. Although Grace is likely to dissipate by 60 hours over the high terrain of Central Mexico, the mid-level circulation should survive and emerge into the East Pacific. This feature could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone in that basin. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this afternoon and evening across the northern Yucatan Peninsula but should subside later tonight. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 26

2021-08-19 22:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192050 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 89.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-08-19 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri earlier this afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds and SFMR values to support an intensity of about 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 997 mb. The storm's appearance in satellite images has been generally steady throughout the day with the low-level center located on the northern side of the convective mass, and banding features confined to the south side of the circulation. This somewhat asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The tropical storm is now moving due westward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge should keep Henri on a westward to west-northwestward track through tonight. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. The exact location of the northward turn will be very critical in determining Henri's future track and how close it gets to New England. The latest GFS run has shifted eastward and the UKMET and ECMWF have shifted westward. Consequently, the net result is very little change in the consensus models and the new NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one. Based on this forecast, Henri is expected to be very near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will be flying around Henri this evening to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm. Although Henri is a bit weaker now, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed. The shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, the global models show a more conducive upper-level wind pattern over Henri shortly after that, and in fact, all of the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, steady intensification is expected during the 24-60 h time period, and Henri is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. Henri is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move over much cooler SSTs on Sunday, and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a steady weakening trend from days 3 to 5. Post-tropical transition is now shown to occur by the end of the forecast period when Henri is expected to be over SSTs below 20 deg C. It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 29.7N 71.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-08-19 22:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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