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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-01 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011450 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda is a bit of a mess this morning with an elongated cloud pattern from southeast to northwest and no signs of an eye in conventional satellite imagery. However, microwave data near 1155 UTC from GPM still shows a well-defined low-level eye, although the mid-level structure remains degraded from easterly shear. The current wind speed is held at 75 kt, with this being an uncertain estimate due to a large spread in the various intensity techniques. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt, with microwave data helping to pinpoint the slower movement. The track forecast is no piece of cake this morning with some interaction anticipated with Invest 91E to the east in a day or two. While a mid-level ridge persists to the northwest of Hilda, the southern periphery of the ridge weakens due to 91E, causing Hilda to take a northwestward turn in a couple of days. Hilda then should turn back toward the west-northwest and west by midweek due to the ridge remaining in place and 91E weakening. This is a tricky forecast because the guidance is shifting to the right, which at some point will bring Hilda over cold waters and closer to 91E, changing which atmospheric layers will dominate steering the tropical cyclone. In addition, interactions between two systems this close together aren't easy to forecast in the best of circumstances, and the latest guidance isn't in great agreement on the future strength of 91E either. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast is more conservative in shifting the track to the northeast than the guidance (remaining on the westerly side of the track envelope), then gradually comes close to the previous NHC forecast by the end of the 5-day period. This forecast is obviously rather uncertain, and a lot of generally better performing aids are to the northeast of the latest NHC track. The hurricane still has some chance to intensify during the next day or so with moderate easterly shear and good inner-core structure. Still, it is becoming more likely that Hilda is close to its peak intensity with no signs of the easterly shear abating until the hurricane moves over cool waters in a few days. Model guidance generally is lower than the last cycle, and only a few show strengthening. I'm going to keep the chance for slight strengthening in the near term, then show a steady drop in intensity due to persistent (or stronger) easterly shear and marginal water temperatures. The new intensity forecast is 5 kt lower than the last one at 36 hours and beyond and that could still be too high, especially if the track shifts any farther to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.6N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-01 16:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011443 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010838 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has remained poorly organized for more than 24 hours and has produced a very limited amount of convection during that time. As a result of the lack of organized deep convection over the past day, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and it has degenerated into a remnant low. In addition, the original low-level swirl that was tracked over the past day or so appears to have been absorbed within the envelope of the broader low pressure area. The system's initial intensity is maintained at 25 kt, but this could be generous. The depression has been plagued by shear and dry air entrainment, and those conditions are expected to persist for at least the next couple of days. If the system is able to survive past 72 hours, there is some chance of redevelopment when the shear decreases later in the period. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential interaction with Hurricane Hilda located to the cyclone's northeast, the official forecast calls for the system to remain a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system unless regeneration occurs. The cyclone has been nearly stationary overnight, but it is forecast to begin a slow westward to west-northwestward motion later today, and that motion should continue for the next few days. After that time, possible interaction with Hilda increases the track forecast uncertainty, but since the majority of the dynamical models keep the low on a west-northwestward heading, so does the NHC forecast. Future information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Information on potential regeneration will be available in the Tropical Weather Outlook as needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.4N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 665 WTPZ24 KNHC 010837 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda's strengthening last evening was short lived. Infrared and water vapor imagery show high-level clouds from a weather disturbance to the east impinging on the eastern side of Hilda's circulation, suggestive of moderate easterly shear. In fact, 85-GHz SSMIS data from 0241 UTC shows that the microwave presentation has degraded significantly, with most of the deep convection displaced to the west of the low-level center. Hilda's initial intensity is being held at 75 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 4.5 from TAFB and SAB, although that estimate could be generous. Hilda continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a subtropical ridge which is expected to build westward over the Pacific during the next few days. Despite the placement of this ridge, the dynamical models indicate that Hilda is likely to have some degree of binary interaction with the disturbance to its east and thus take on a northwestward heading on days 2 and 3. After the interaction, the ridge should then cause Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and then west by days 4 and 5. While there are some model outliers, the spread among the guidance has actually decreased over the past 24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous forecast, except that it is a little slower to account for recent model trends. The moderate easterly shear affecting Hilda is unlikely to abate much during the next couple of days, especially as the distance between the hurricane and the disturbance to the east decreases. Still, Hilda will remain over relatively warm waters during that period, and the models suggest that the hurricane will either maintain its current intensity or strengthen slightly through 48 hours. Hilda is then expected to move over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius, causing a steady weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous forecast to account for the current structure of the cyclone and the latest model solutions, although the forecast intensities are not as low as what is shown by the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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