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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 17

2021-08-03 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-03 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032036 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Ignacio has been devoid of deep convection within 75 nmi of the center for the more than 6 hours now due to strong easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on the continued degradation in the convective pattern and a 1536Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that revealed a patch of 27-kt surface wind vectors south of the center. The small cyclone is expected to meander over water temperatures near 26 deg C for the next 12-24 hours, while the shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt during that time. Owing to these unfavorable environmental conditions, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by late this afternoon, followed by dissipation on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is now 090/03 kt. Ignacio is forecast to make a small clockwise loop within weak low-level steering flow until the system dissipates around 36 hours. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-08-03 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-08-03 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 There's been little change with the structure of Hilda overnight as deep convection continues to be mostly south of the center due to persistent northeasterly shear. The low-level eye feature in 37 GHz microwave data remains on the latest passes, but it isn't very deep because of the shear. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, plus the UW-CIMSS SATCON, yields 60 kt as the initial wind speed. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, first primarily due to shear, then cool water temperatures and a more stable environment on Wed-Fri. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest forecast is close to the previous NHC advisory and the model consensus. Hilda should decay into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaii. The initial motion estimate, 315/7 kt, is the same as the previous advisory. Hilda is maintaining this motion as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern California. The global models are consistently building this ridge westward over the eastern Pacific during the next several days as a shortwave trough lifts out along 135W, causing Hilda to turn west-northwestward by Thursday. The only significant forecast difference is how quickly the cyclone moves, mostly in the latter stages, with more of the guidance showing a faster motion, perhaps because the models are showing a weaker Hilda being steered by the quicker low-level flow. The new NHC prediction shows that acceleration at long-range as well, near or just behind the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.5N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-08-03 16:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

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