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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-04 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040236 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Ignacio consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center since this morning. Therefore the system no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone and is now a remnant low, or a post-tropical cyclone. The low has been moving east-southeastward, or about 120/6 kt. A turn toward the southeast and south is expected on Wednesday while the system moves around the northern side of a low-level ridge. Although the low will be moving over slightly warmer waters, strong easterly shear should prevent regeneration, and the system should dissipate in 24 h or so. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ignacio. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/1200Z 19.6N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-08-04 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040236 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Hilda is a weakening tropical cyclone. Its low-level center is now exposed in visible satellite imagery, and infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as the system is currently not producing any deep convection. Despite this lack of convection, earlier scatterometer data revealed several 45-kt wind vectors in the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a blend of the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. continues to steer Hilda northwestward at around 7 kt. As the vortex spins down and becomes vertically shallow, Hilda is expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate a bit as a low-level ridge builds westward across the eastern Pacific. The official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. Hilda is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, so continued weakening is expected over the next few days. The official NHC forecast now shows Hilda weakening to a tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerating to a remnant low soon thereafter. The remnant low is still expected to open up into a trough this weekend well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-04 04:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040235 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 115.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-08-04 04:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 125.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 125.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 17

2021-08-03 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032039 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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