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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010835 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010241 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The tropical depression's classification as a tropical cyclone is in doubt. It has not produced sustained organized deep convection for over a day and is nearly devoid of even moderate convection at this time. In addition, the surface wind field is poorly defined. A prominent swirl noted in the previous forecast package moved quickly southeastward and dissipated, leaving only a broad, elongated low centered east of previous estimates. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix still supports an intensity of 25 kt. If organized deep convection does not redevelop soon, the system could become a remnant low or open into a trough at any time. Even if the depression is able to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone, the close proximity of rapidly intensifying Hilda to the east will likely prevent it from strengthening during the next 72 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC intensity forecast. After that time, Hilda is forecast to weaken, which could open a window for intensification (or re-formation) late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is now below the intensity consensus at most forecast hours. It is worth noting that the operational regional hurricane models do not capture storm-to-storm interactions very well, and this is likely influencing the relatively high intensity forecast produced by the HWRF. The eastward adjustment of the initial position has necessitated a large eastward shift in the forecast track based on the new center position. Otherwise, the general reasoning behind the NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. A slow, westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Beyond that time, differences regarding the specifics of any direct interaction with Hilda is the primary source of uncertainty in the track forecast. Confidence in the forecast, especially at that long range, remains low. The NHC forecast is based primarily on a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda has resumed strengthening during the past several hours, including the short-lived appearance of an eye in the central dense overcast. Recent 37-GHz microwave imagery confirms an eye is developing, but indicates that the eyewall is not yet closed on the northeastern side of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt, while the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 75 kt. Although Hilda is experiencing some easterly vertical shear, conditions are generally conducive for strengthening during the next 24 h, and the early part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based mainly on current trends. After that time, decreasing moisture and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady weakening. The latter part of the intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is now a little slower at 285/9. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Hilda generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with a more northwestward motion around 96 h as the cyclone passes south of a weakness in the ridge. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also adjusted northward. It should be noted, though, that the global models continue to show the possibility of erratic motion due to Hilda interacting with TD-9E to the west and the weaker, but larger, low pressure area to the east. The most drastic example of this is in the Canadian model, which shows Hilda taking a significant turn to the south before resuming a northward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010235 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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