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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-03 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Moderate northeasterly wind shear continues to take a toll on Hilda this evening. The upper-level outflow on the northern and eastern sides of the circulation has a sharp edge in satellite imagery. Recent SSMIS microwave data show the structure of Hilda has changed little since earlier today, with a weakness in the upshear portion of the eyewall and a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers. The various objective intensity estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. Hilda is moving northwestward, or 315/6 kt, under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. This general motion is expected to continue through midweek, and the track guidance remains tightly clustered during this period. As Hilda continues weakening and the ridge builds westward, Hilda is forecast to move west-northwestward and then westward within the low-level flow through the rest of the period. However, a complicating factor is the potential for some interaction with the remnants of TD Nine-E, which now have a high chance of redevelopment during the next couple of days. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly poleward once again at day 3 and beyond, bringing it closer to the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA and accounting for the aforementioned possibility of some interaction between the two systems. Moderate northeasterly shear will persist for the next day or so, and afterwards the cooler sea-surface temperatures along Hilda's forecast track will offset any reduction in shear over the system. Therefore, weakening is expected during the next several days. The official NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above the multi-model consensus aids in the near-term, but then closely follows IVCN and HCCA once Hilda reaches the cooler waters. The system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 96 h, but this transition could occur soon after 72 h based on some of the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-03 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030234 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-08-02 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Recent satellite images show that Hilda's cloud pattern has become less organized, with the low-level center on the northeast edge of the central dense overcast. Microwave data also show a less distinct eye feature, along with a more broken eyewall. The initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt, which is closest to the latest CIMSS-SATCON value. Hilda continues moving northwestward and should remain on that heading for the next day or two while it is steered by the subtropical ridge located near and west of Mexico. No changes were made to the forecast during that time. After that, the ridge builds farther to the west and a weakened Hilda should respond by taking west-northwestward and westward turns by late week. However, exactly when that happens is difficult to tell due to potential interaction at long range with the remnants of former TD 9-E. A fair number of the models are showing that system regenerating and getting closer to Hilda, which would have the tendency to steer Hilda farther northward. While the new forecast responds to this scenario by shifting the official track about half a degree poleward on day 3 and beyond, a lot of the latest guidance is even farther north. It seems like Hilda might finally be on a steadier weakening trend with the recent degradation noted in satellite data. With moderate northeasterly shear and decreasing water temperatures in the path of the cyclone, Hilda should continue to lose strength during the next few days. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance is a little higher than the last cycle, which doesn't feel like the correct forecast move at this time, especially as the forecast shifts northward over cooler waters faster. The new NHC forecast maintains the weakening trend from the last advisory, and now ends up lower than the bulk of the guidance. Remnant-low status is anticipated just after day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-02 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Ignacio appears to have peaked in intensity, with moderate-to- strong northeasterly vertical wind shear having displaced most of the deep convection into the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. The latest subjective satellite current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at T2.5/35 kt, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 38 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been held at 35 kt, which could be generous. The center of Ignacio passed 15-20 nmi northeast of Clarion Island, Mexico, where the pressure fell to 1006.5 mb around 1400 UTC and the highest winds measured were sustained 22 kt gusting to 33 kt according to a Mexican navy observing station on the island. A pronounced wind shift from the northeast to the southwest and west was also noted in the wind data. However, wind speeds have been steadily decreasing over the past several hours, an indication that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the northeastern quadrant. Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes again missed the center and the strongest winds associated with Ignacio. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. Ignacio is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion between a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the southwest throughout the short forecast period. The new advisory track forecast is similar the previous forecast track, and lies along the left side of the consensus track models envelope. Ignacio is expected to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours due to steadily increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt by 24 hours and beyond. By 18-24 hours, Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, which will act to hasten the weakening process, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.4N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 21.2N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 105SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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