je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-02 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 439 WTPZ45 KNHC 020837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters along the forecast track should end that possibility by early tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous advisory was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 SSMIS microwave data received just after the previous advisory indicate that Hilda's structure may have improved slightly, with a closed mid-level eye noted in the 85-GHz channel. However, the microwave data also showed that the low- and mid-level centers remain offset from each other by about 15 n mi due to continued moderate easterly shear. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, which is a blend of the latest final-T Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. Hilda has begun to turn to the right and slow down, and the initial motion is west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 7 kt. Although the subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north of Hilda, the hurricane's close proximity to Tropical Depression Ten-E and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to cause some binary interaction over the next couple of days, with Hilda likely to slow down further and turn toward the northwest later today and continue on that heading through Wednesday. In fact, the newest track guidance has trended to the northeast during the first 48 hours, and the updated NHC forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right during that period. However, it should be noted that the track adjustment is conservative, and does not show a turn quite as sharp as that shown by the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Low-level ridging should play a more prominent role in about 3 days, causing Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and then west by the end of the forecast period. No significant track changes were required during the day 3-5 time period. Moderate east-northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, with Hilda also heading toward cooler waters during that time. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to commence later today, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids for the next day or so. Sub-26 degree Celsius waters are likely to cause quicker weakening from 36 hours onward, and the NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward during that period. This new forecast is lower than the statistical-dynamical models but not nearly as low as the latest HCCA solution. Hilda is now forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, although the HCCA scenario suggests that these transitions could occur as much as a day earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.3N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-02 10:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020835 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-02 10:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-02 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda's satellite appearance is showing effects of easterly vertical wind shear this evening. Recent imagery shows a sharp edge to the upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the system. A 2130 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass reveals that the eyewall is no longer closed, as the inner core convection has been eroded on the eastern side of the circulation. Microwave data also indicate the vortex has become vertically tilted, with the mid-level center displaced about 10-15 n mi to the west-northwest of the low-level center. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the objective UW-CIMSS Dvorak estimates. Hilda is still moving west-northwestward at 285/8 kt, to the south of a ridge over the western U.S. and northern Mexico. A turn to the northwest is expected on Monday as the ridge weakens, likely in response to T.D. Ten-E located to the east-northeast of Hilda. A northwestward motion should continue through midweek before the ridge becomes reestablished and Hilda turns westward through the rest of the forecast period. There is greater track uncertainty later in the week due to possible interaction with another system that could redevelop from the remnants of T.D. Nine-E. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one at 48 h and beyond based on the latest guidance, but it still lies slightly left of the multi-model consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Environmental conditions are not expected to become any more favorable for strengthening during the next couple days, so Hilda's intensity has likely peaked. Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to persist for the next 36-48 h, and the NHC forecast track brings Hilda north of the 26 deg C isotherm by the time these upper-level winds subside. Once over cooler waters, Hilda is forecast to quickly spin down and weaken to a tropical depression by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast has again been lowered by 5-10 kt from the previous one at all forecast times, but it still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids through 72 h. The system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.1N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [177] [178] [179] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184] [185] [186] [187] [188] [189] [190] [191] [192] [193] [194] [195] [196] next »