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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-02 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020234 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-02 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 The center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection, as the system is experiencing northeasterly shear due to the flow on the south side of a large upper-level anticyclone. Enhanced infrared imagery shows that the convection is very deep over the western part of the circulation, but there is little evidence of banding features. The current intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Hopefully we will soon obtain some additional scatterometer data to provide an intensity estimate. The depression continues its west-northwestward track with a motion near 295/11 kt. This heading should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure area. In 2-3 days, the track could become complicated by the interaction with the circulation of Hilda to the southwest, but the system will probably be quite weak by that time. The official forecast is close to the previous one but somewhat slower in the latter part of the period. Assuming that the low-level center will become at least a little more embedded within the convection later tonight, the system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight. The storm will probably be short-lived, however, with increased shear and cooler waters causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. The official forecast is not far from the model consensus predictions, but a more rapid weakening is predicted by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.6N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-08-02 04:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-01 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda has had a similar appearance all day with an elongated cloud pattern from southeast to northwest on satellite imagery. Recent microwave passes show that the center is located on the northern side of the central dense overcast. The current intensity estimates have a very wide range from 65 to 90 kt, and with the apparent steady-state of the hurricane, Hilda's wind speed will stay at 75 kt until clearer data emerges. Hilda continues moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The trends from the last advisory have continued with more interaction shown with new Tropical Depression 10-E to the east, leading to a weaker ridge and a faster northwestward turn of Hilda in a day or so. By midweek, Hilda should turn back to the west-northwest and westward later in the period under the influence of a stronger portion of the ridge. The new official forecast is shifted about a half a degree to the northeast, near the model consensus, although the corrected-consensus models are even farther to the right. With the forecast track shift, it is becoming unlikely that Hilda will get significantly stronger since it will move over cooler waters sooner. In addition, easterly shear should increase tomorrow, probably leading to the start of weakening. Guidance has trended downward since the last cycle, and considering the new track forecast moves over cooler waters faster, the latest NHC wind speed forecast has been lowered 5-10 kt at all time periods, and this still might be too high. In about 4 days, most of the models show little convection remaining with Hilda due to cold water and drier mid-level air, so the system should transition to a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.8N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-08-01 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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