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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 48
2021-10-04 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 240SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 390SE 580SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 240SE 210SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-10-04 10:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner. Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-10-04 10:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 43.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 43.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 47
2021-10-04 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 A 0255Z GPM microwave pass indicated that Sam had continued to go through an eyewall replacement cycle, consisting of a 20-nmi-wide inner eye and an 85-nmi-wide outer eye. The inner eye was rapidly eroding on the northwest side compared to microwave data from just a few hours earlier. Additionally, late-arriving ASCAT surface wind data from 0000-0100Z indicated that the inner-core wind field had contracted or weakened, while the outer wind field (34-kt radii) had continued to expand in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased to around 80 kt. However, the advisory intensity has been maintained at 90 kt based on the 10-kt increase in forward speed, which should offset any weakening of the tangential winds. Gradual weakening is expected now that Sam has passed north of the warm Gulf Stream and is moving over sub-25-deg-C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with much colder SSTs lying ahead of the hurricane. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 18 h, which should cause further weakening. By 24 h and beyond, interaction with a strong upper-level trough/low should cause Sam to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday to the east of Newfoundland. This baroclinic interaction is expected to cause extratropical-Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. Slow weakening is forecast thereafter as the very large cyclone slowly spins down as an occluded low pressure system. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. Sam has continued to accelerate and is now moving at 045/26 kt. A northeastward motion along with continued acceleration is forecast through today as Sam moves into stronger southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The large cyclone is expected to remain the primary surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days. A gradual turn toward the north and northwest is expected on days 4 and 5 when extratropical-Sam moves around another high-latitude trough. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 40.8N 48.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 43.7N 45.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 47.8N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 05/1800Z 50.1N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 51.0N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1800Z 52.8N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0600Z 56.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 60.6N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 61.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 47
2021-10-04 10:41:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040841 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 48.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 220SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 360SE 450SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 48.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 43.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 47.8N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 310SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.1N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 350SE 400SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 51.0N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 110SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...290NE 350SE 380SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 52.8N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 290SE 310SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 56.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...220NE 260SE 200SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 60.6N 29.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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