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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-10-03 10:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030840 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 39.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 39.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-10-03 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030246 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data. The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI estimate from 0000 UTC. Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to 28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next week. Victor's low-level wind field will also continue to spin down over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus aids and deterministic model output. The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a trough in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-10-03 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 42
2021-10-03 04:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030237 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 57.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 290SE 340SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 57.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 55.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.7N 51.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.7N 47.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.3N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.8N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 380SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 51.7N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 120SE 110SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 480SE 480SW 320NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 60.5N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-10-02 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022039 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various multimodel track consensus solutions. Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for the timing of the system becoming a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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