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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 41

2021-10-02 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022037 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 The hurricane is gradually losing strength. Satellite images show that the eye has become more cloud filled, with Sam's ring of deep convection becoming less intense and two main towers in the southeast and northwest quadrants. Still, the tropical cyclone is quite a sight even on full-disk images with a large distinctive cloud pattern. The latest intensity estimates have decreased, so the initial wind speed is set to 110 kt, with higher uncertainty than average in this figure due to recent recon/satellite differences. Sam wisely has avoided much shear during its 10-day journey across the Atlantic, and it could remain a major hurricane for another day or so. However, in 36 hours or so, the system should move north of the Gulf Stream, which would normally cause a dramatic weakening. But in this case, a favorable mid-latitude trough interaction should cause Sam to transition into a large and powerful extratropical low by 60 hours. After that, it loses its baroclinic forcing and should gradually spin down over the far North Atlantic southwest of Iceland. Guidance is in fairly solid agreement on this scenario, and the new intensity forecast is mostly just an update of the previous one, remaining close to the consensus. The system continues moving northeastward at about 15 kt. Sam should move faster to the northeast by Monday as it encounters stronger wind flow between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. The track will weave leftward a bit at longer ranges due to the upper trough pulling the extratropical system north-northeastward at times, and eventually another trough has a similar tug by day 5. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast with guidance in close agreement. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 35.4N 58.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.8N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 38.6N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 40.8N 49.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 44.7N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 49.3N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1800Z 51.6N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1800Z 53.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z 60.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 41

2021-10-02 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 022036 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 58.2W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 330SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 58.2W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 44.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 49.3N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 380SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 51.6N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 120SE 110SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 480SE 480SW 320NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 53.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 60.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-10-02 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 40

2021-10-02 16:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021451 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Sam has been an impressive hurricane during the past several days. The latest satellite imagery shows it remains a powerful system, with a well-defined eye and symmetric cloud pattern. In fact, since the plane left overnight, the eye has actually warmed, with little change in the eyewall convection. Thus the initial intensity will stay 115 kt, above the latest satellite classifications, but consistent with the earlier aircraft data and low bias of the Dvorak technique for much of the this storm. Sam is now in the top 10 for consecutive days as a category 4 hurricane or greater in the historical record, about the same as Matthew 2016. The hurricane is forecast to gradually lose strength during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over marginally warm waters, but in fairly light shear. In fact, some of the guidance decrease the shear overnight, which should allow Sam to keep much of its strength, provided it doesn't undertake an eyewall cycle. The new intensity forecast is higher in the first day or so, consistent with the latest model solutions. In about 2 days, Sam will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and in 3 days is expected to spectacularly transition into a large hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. No changes were made to the end of the intensity forecast. Sam has turned northeastward at about 15 kt. The hurricane should accelerate later this weekend due to increasing flow between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. By midweek the system is forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as it becomes a spoke in a very large extratropical low over the far North Atlantic. The new forecast has shifted somewhat eastward during the first couple of days but ends up very near the last advisory by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States coast and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.9N 59.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 35.6N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 37.4N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 39.2N 52.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 41.8N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 50.0N 38.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1200Z 53.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 40

2021-10-02 16:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 196 WTNT23 KNHC 021448 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 280SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.6N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.4N 55.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 210SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.8N 47.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 270SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 340SE 410SW 310NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 53.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 59.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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