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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-10-04 04:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 In its battle against dry air and shear, Victor is far from its namesake. The depression continues to produce only minimal deep convection to the north. Furthermore, an ASCAT overpass near 2219 UTC casts doubt on whether Victor still has a closed and well-defined circulation, showing generally light winds south of the suspect center. However, no visible imagery is currently available to confirm the state of Victor's surface center, so advisories will continue for now. ASCAT data showed winds a little above 25 kt to the northeast of Victor's center, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Victor is moving northwestward at a slightly faster speed (305/13 kt). Based on the ASCAT data and recent ProxyVis imagery, the center of Victor was relocated about 40 n mi south of previous estimates, which has resulted in a southern shift in the forecast track. That said, Victor is not expected to persist for much longer. The hostile surrounding environment will likely cause Victor to become a remnant low or dissipate on Monday. Victor, or its remnants, should move generally northwestward or west-northwestward until dissipation occurs within a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.8N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 46
2021-10-04 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040234 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam still had a surprise up its sleeve tonight, with its eye becoming warmer on satellite images along with a stronger eyewall. Microwave data from earlier today indicated that Sam has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle, and it appears that the inner eyewall has become better defined. Regardless, it is not every day you see a hurricane with that clear of an eye near 40N, and the intensity estimates the evening range from 90-100 kt. Given the concentric eyewalls, the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 90 kt, but it could be higher. High-resolution NOAA OISST data indicate that Sam is moving near a warm eddy along the north wall of the Gulf Stream. This favorable factor, in addition to low shear, should keep Sam's weakening to a minimum in the near term. Later on, although the shear increases rapidly and SSTs fall quickly, Sam is expected to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday due to a mid-latitude trough interaction well east of Newfoundland. This should cause extratropical Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. A slow weakening is expected thereafter as it slowly spins down as an occluded low. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Sam is moving faster, now 050/17 kt. A northeastward motion and continued acceleration is forecast through Monday as the cyclone gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The tropical cyclone is expected to be the main surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days, hooking briefly to the left. Thereafter, the system should resume a northeastward motion and gradually turn northward and even westward at long range as it moves around another trough. Model guidance is close to the previous cycle, even with the loopy track, and the new NHC forecast is basically just an update of the last advisory. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 39.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 46.5N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 50.4N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1200Z 51.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 54.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 61.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 61.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-10-04 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-10-03 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032039 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 The convective structure of Victor has deteriorated this afternoon. Only small pulses of convection have been observed north of the center over the past several hours. Victor's exposed low-level circulation is also becoming more diffuse, with multiple cloud swirls noted in visible satellite imagery. Hopefully, scatterometer data this evening will provide more information about whether Victor still possesses a closed and well-defined surface center. For now, Victor is held as a 30-kt tropical depression, which is consistent with earlier scatterometer winds and a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Victor is unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The dry mid-level environment and 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to limit Victor's ability to sustain deep, organized convection going forward. Even if another diurnal convective pulse occurs tonight, it should be quickly stripped away from the center by the moderate to strong shear. The official NHC forecast shows Victor becoming a remnant low on Monday, then opening up into a trough and dissipating soon thereafter. Victor is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. A northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-10-03 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032038 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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