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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-10-02 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 37.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 150SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 37.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 40.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 44.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.6N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 37.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-10-02 10:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020843 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters conducted their final mission into Sam a few hours ago and found that the hurricane is still of category 4 intensity, but the maximum winds have decreased some. The crew reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 130 kt (equating to surface winds of 115-120 kt) and unflagged SFMR winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these wind data, Sam's intensity is now estimated to be 115 kt. This value is at the upper end of the latest satellite estimates, which range from 100-115 kt. The hurricane's central pressure has also risen to 945 mb. Sam is still moving toward the north-northeast with a motion of 020/15 kt. The hurricane is entering the area between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada, and this flow should cause Sam to turn toward the northeast by tonight and then maintain that general heading for much of the forecast period. The storm is also expected to accelerate, reaching a peak forward speed of more than 25 kt in 60-72 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, but there is significantly more spread on days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty on exactly how Sam will interact with the aforementioned mid-/upper-level low. The NHC forecast has been placed near a blend of the GFS-ECMWF mean and the HCCA consensus aid, which necessitated a northward shift from the previous forecast only on days 4 and 5. Deep-layer southerly shear of 15-20 kt appears to be contributing to Sam's current weakening. Continued shear and cooler waters along Sam's path should lead to additional weakening in the coming days, although not at a rapid rate due to some baroclinic forcing. Global models suggest that Sam will begin extratropical transition in about 48 hours, with that process completing by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids during Sam's tropical phase, but then transitions to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance on days 3 through 5 during its extratropical phase. Sam is expected to continue producing hurricane-force winds through at least day 3, with more significant weakening occurring on days 4 and 5 once it is a vertically stacked occluded low. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Although the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda has been discontinued, a few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on the island during the morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 32.8N 60.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 34.6N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 36.6N 57.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 38.4N 54.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 40.7N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 44.4N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 48.9N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0600Z 53.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0600Z 58.7N 26.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-10-02 10:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 117 WTNT23 KNHC 020842 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.4N 54.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 44.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 240SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 48.9N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 360SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 53.4N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 58.7N 26.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 118 WTNT45 KNHC 020842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor's satellite appearance has continued to degrade this morning with the closest convection now located more than 150 nmi northeast of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Thus, Victor no longer technically meets the convective criterion of a tropical cyclone. However, tropical cyclone status is being maintained for this advisory out of continuity with the previous advisory and just in case a burst of deep convection redevelops later today near the still-well-defined low-level circulation center. Victor's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on a subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of CI3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the typical decay rate and spin down of a non-convective vortex over open water. The motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 72-96 hours or until dissipation occurs. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt and entrainment of dry mid-level air have taken their toll on Victor. These unfavorable environmental parameters are expected to worsen, resulting in continued weakening throughout the forecast period. Therefore, Victor is forecast to become a tropical depression by Sunday, degenerate into a remnant low by Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. However, the current weakening trend will be hastened if organized convection does not return within the next 12 hours. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and is also lower than most of the intensity guidance due to Victor's aforementioned severely degraded convective pattern. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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