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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 44

2021-10-03 16:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 031447 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam's cloud pattern remains quite symmetric for a hurricane moving into the higher latitudes. The eye has become more apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours. A very timely 1155 UTC GMI microwave image also reveals a well-defined inner eye that was surrounded by an outer ring of convection at a much larger radius. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from the lastest subjective Dvorak classifications yields an initial intensity of 85 kt, this is also supported by earlier UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates. The vertical shear over Sam is expected to remain low for the next 6-12 hours and only gradual weakening is anticipated while the system moves over gradually decreasing SSTs. Later tonight, Sam is expected to move over much cooler waters north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear, which should result in continued weakening. However, a strong mid-tropospheric trough approaching Sam from the west on Monday is expected to result in a fairly quick transition of Sam to a large and powerful extratropical low. The low is forecast to gradually weaken over the far north Atlantic during the middle to latter portions of the week as the baroclinic forcing decreases. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the various intensity aids during the early portion of the period, but leans toward the global model guidance during the post-tropical phase. Sam is moving northeastward or 050/14 kt. The cyclone should continue to move northeastward in the flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic and mid-latitude trough over Atlantic Canada. As this trough approaches Sam from the west, a much faster northeastward motion is expected by Monday and Monday night. Around midweek, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down as it rotates around a large cut-off low over the north Atlantic. After that time, the low is forecast to resume a northeastward motion before it slows once again to the southwest of Iceland. Given the future complex interactions of the post-tropical low with the cut-off low and trough over the north Atlantic, the track guidance is in surprisingly good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS global models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 37.7N 54.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 39.3N 51.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 42.4N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 47.0N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/1200Z 50.9N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/0000Z 50.9N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1200Z 51.5N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1200Z 59.2N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 60.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 44

2021-10-03 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 031445 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 54.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 180SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 330SE 360SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 54.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.3N 51.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.0N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.9N 39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 360SE 420SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.9N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 400SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 330SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.2N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 60.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 17

2021-10-03 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031440 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to 30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to the center relocation described above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.1N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 17

2021-10-03 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031437 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 40.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 40.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-10-03 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030858 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Victor remains a sheared tropical cyclone with intense deep convection having developed closer to the center in the northeastern quadrant since the previous advisory. Satellite intensity estimates remain at T2.0/30 kt, so the advisory intensity remains at 30 kt. It is possible that Victor could have regained tropical storm status based on the robust convective shear pattern. For now, however, Victor will remain a depression until new ASCAT surface wind data arrive later this morning. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur this morning due to the aforementioned better defined shear pattern. By tonight, however, weakening is anticipated as Victor encounters southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt and moves into a drier air mass, which will act to decrease both the depth and amount of inner-core deep convection. Victor is expected to gradually spin down tonight and Monday, with the circulation opening up into a trough on Tuesday. Victor continues to move northwestward, or 315/14 kt. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to continue as Victor remains embedded within the southeasterly flow around a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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