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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-07-02 17:24:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021505 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized, and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at eye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed. The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr. After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergent around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latter portion of the track forecast remains low confidence. The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light westerly shear. After that, land interaction, along with less favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to cause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows major adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the initial intensity. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-07-02 14:23:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021223 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-07-02 14:22:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021222 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * JAMAICA * DOMINICA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY...INCLUDING HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 60.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-07-02 10:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020849 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 6

2021-07-02 04:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020257 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold -75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of 44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data, the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this advisory. Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle. Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period remains low confidence. The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt. However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.8N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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