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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-07-02 04:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020250 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA PALENQUE * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W...OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 55.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-01 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012051 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 53.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-07-01 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The structure of Elsa has changed little since the last advisory, with the low-level center partly exposed to the northwest of the somewhat-ragged primary convective band. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little during the last 6 h, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion is now 285/25. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west- northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low. The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The intensity forecast and its high uncertainty are also little changed from the last advisory. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward motion could result in the upper and lower parts of the storm being unable to stay together, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be, although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable conditions north of about 22N. This uncertainty is highlighted by the UKMET forecasting Elsa to weaken to a trough near western Cuba while the GFS forecasts it to be a hurricane in the same area and time. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-01 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011453 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 Just-received scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. Some slight revisions were also made to the initial and forecast wind radii. Over all, the organization of the storm has changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level center partly exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band. Elsa continues to move a little faster with the initial motion now 280/24. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and ECMWF ensemble mean forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will lean more toward the GFS/UKMET solutions at this time, but the large spread in both the deterministic models and the ensembles make this part of the forecast of low confidence. The new official forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of the lower and upper parts of the storm, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also has high uncertainty due to the possibility of land interaction and disagreements among the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday, with outer rain bands impacting Puerto Rico Friday into Saturday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 10.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-07-01 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 51.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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