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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-01 10:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010854 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight, with convective banding features becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is set at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and just slightly above the maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, making the cyclone a tropical storm. Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020. The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual. Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of the low- and higher-level circulation which would limit strengthening. Also, the potential interaction of the storm with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative and on the lower end of the guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-07-01 10:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010853 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 48.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 48.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 48.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-01 04:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010255 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 The satellite presentation of the system over the last 6-12 hours has continued to gradually improve, with a prominent banding feature to the west of the estimated center. An ASCAT-A pass received at 2323 UTC revealed that the low-level circulation has become a bit better defined compared to earlier today, though still somewhat elongated to the south and west. The peak wind retrievals from this instrument were 30-32 kt. While subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were a bit higher, the latest estimated intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory in agreement with the slightly lower scatterometer data. The initial motion has accelerated a bit tonight at 280/20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the tropical cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and begin to move more poleward and slow down as the ridge also becomes eroded by a mid-latitude trough to over the eastern US. The track guidance in the latter portion of the forecast continues to exhibit large spread, with the GFS and HWRF/HMON models along the left side of the guidance envelop, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is a shade right of the previous one, and also slightly faster, but given the spread in the models, the latter portion of the track is more uncertain than usual. While the depression is currently in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and high mid-level relative humidity, the expected acceleration in forward motion could cause the system to outrun the favorable upper-level easterlies currently overhead, after 36 hours. In addition, the system could be near or over some of the Greater Antilles in the latter portions of the forecast. For these reasons, the intensity remained capped at 50 kt after 36 hours, and is still on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite, though this forecast could be somewhat conservative. Key Messages: 1. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are expected beginning late Thursday night in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 9.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 120H 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-01 04:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 184 WTNT25 KNHC 010253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 46.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-30 22:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302054 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet have a well-defined center. The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25 kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to the level of uncertainty. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 9.6N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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