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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-28 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281451 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-28 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281447 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that area later today. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-06-28 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280834 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 165SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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