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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-06-29 22:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 292044 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 108.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 108.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-06-29 16:55:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291455 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity. Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification. Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain 335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model consensus. Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple of days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-06-29 16:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 291451 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN

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Remnants of Danny Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-29 10:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290847 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Danny Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Surface observations indicate that the low-level circulation associated with Danny is no longer well-defined. Therefore, Danny is no longer classifiable as a tropical cyclone. The observations also indicated that the maximum winds associated with these remnants have decreased to 20 kt or less, while surface pressures have risen to 1019 mb. The remnants of Danny are moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through today, with locally heavy rainfall spreading across portions of northern Georgia and Alabama. This is the last NHC advisory on Danny. For additional information specific to your area, please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from the remnants of Danny may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas, across western and northern Georgia into central and northern Alabama today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 33.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Remnants of Danny Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-06-29 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290846 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 83.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1019 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 83.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 83.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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