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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-06-30 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 843 WTPZ45 KNHC 300835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in 36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct. Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected consensus solution. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-06-30 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 350 WTPZ25 KNHC 300832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 109.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 109.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-06-30 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300248 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst, beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to -70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection, though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB. The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter, the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24 hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after moving over land. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-06-30 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 300239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 109.1W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 109.1W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-06-29 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle. The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over land. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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