Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-06-27 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 053 WTPZ25 KNHC 271443 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-06-27 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 113 WTPZ45 KNHC 270841 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja California peninsula, which should also contribute to the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU Superensemble predictions. Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should gradually bend to the left under the influence of the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too different from the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 
 

Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-06-27 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270249 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center of Enrique this evening. A couple of microwave overpasses since the previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature. These observations suggest that some of the dry air noted earlier has mixed out. Although objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at 75 kt. Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight intensification in the short term. After that time, moderate easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to three days. A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula. This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day 5. Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position. Although the latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the southwest United States. As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward the northwest. The latest official forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the coast. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-06-27 04:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270247 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA MITA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-06-26 22:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262058 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity of 75 kt for this advisory. Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or tomorrow. Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below 26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [225] [226] [227] [228] [229] [230] [231] [232] [233] [234] [235] [236] [237] [238] [239] [240] [241] [242] [243] [244] next »