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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-11-01 21:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 012052 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 78.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-11-01 15:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 011455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 77.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 77.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 78.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.9N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 81.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.1N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 77.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-11-01 09:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010848 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point. The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus. Key Messages: 1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today. 2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-11-01 09:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 75.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 75.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 75.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-11-01 03:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010247 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the cyclone continues to become better organized, with a convective band wrapping about halfway around the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 35 kt, and the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 40 kt. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin. The initial motion is 275/13. A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently the main steering influence, and the model guidance is in good agreement that this feature should cause the storm to move westward for the next 24-36 h. Between 36-72 h, a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn west-southwestward as it approaches the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Beyond that time, there remains significant spread in the models, with the GFS showing a slow motion toward the northwest near the coast of Honduras while the ECMWF/UKMET show a continued west-southwestward motion into the Pacific. Given the spread, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus, and the 72-120 h part remains low confidence. Eta is over warm water and is in environment of light vertical wind shear. These conditions are expected to continue until the system nears the coast of Central America on 60-72 h. Thus, steady to possibly rapid strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to reach hurricane strength between 36-48 h. The intensity guidance has trended stronger since the last advisory, and this part of the new intensity forecast is now a little below the intensity consensus. After 72 h, the intensity forecast is tied to whether or not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, and the current forecast is based on the forecast track that takes the center well inland. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas on Sunday. 2. Through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the southern coast of Hispaniola, depending upon the track of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.2N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 82.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.7N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0000Z 14.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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