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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-05 03:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050235 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 121.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-11-04 21:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras. There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As before, there are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west- northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after 36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models, Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below the intensity consensus. Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0600Z 14.2N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 16.5N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-04 21:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory. Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the official forecast track. Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-04 21:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-04 15:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 041456 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z...INLAND AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.9W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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