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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-27 15:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271445 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 220SE 300SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-27 09:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY... LOUISIANA...TO NAVARRE...FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA... TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE... FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO... INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 88.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 88.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-27 03:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270247 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between 65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982 mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory. The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the model consensus. Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about 305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and dissipate soon thereafter. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-27 03:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270246 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 87.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 87.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 87.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-26 21:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep convection forming over and around the center and some banding features developing. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane. Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Some weakening should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early Tuesday. Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near or above the model consensus. The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or at about 305/10 kt. There are basically no changes to the track forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself. For the next couple of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of Florida. Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United States. The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days. The guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the official track forecast is very close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA. Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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