je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-29 03:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290258 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95 kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi. While the sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model. The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or 040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing these strong winds to spread well inland. Little change was made to the intensity forecast. Zeta should become extratropical and merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast, eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track. Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the Forecast/Advisory product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the early morning hours on Thursday. 2. Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Tropical storm conditions will also continue for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts. 3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. 4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.5N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-29 03:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290255 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 180SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 88.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-28 22:00:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282100 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The center of Zeta is in the Terrebone Bay area of Louisiana and is making landfall near Cocodrie. Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has rapidly intensified this afternoon. Although the hurricane has been moving over marginally warm SSTs and relatively low heat content waters, it has intensified from 80 kt to 95 kt in about 6 hours. It is possible that this intensification can be at least partly attributable to a conducive interaction with with an upper-level trough located a few hundred miles to the west-northwest of Zeta. The 95-kt intensity estimate for Zeta is based on a blend of flight-level, SFMR and dropsonde winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Since the center will either be interacting with land or moving over land from this point, a weakening trend should begin tonight. The official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, which should handle the exponential decay of wind seed for tropical cyclones moving over land. In 24 hours or so, the global models depict the system as being embedded in a front while it approaches the United States east coast. Thus the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone. Zeta has turned toward the north-northeast and the forward speed is increasing, with the motion now 025/21 kt. The cyclone should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a 500-mb trough through tonight. The system should then move even faster toward the northeast, ahead of the trough, and across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Post-tropical Zeta should move east-northeastward, in the mid-level westerlies, into the Atlantic Friday morning. The official track forecast follows the correct model consensus, HCCA, rather closely. Given Zeta's acceleration after landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. overnight and early Thursday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is beginning along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, with the highest inundation expected to occur somewhere between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, especially along the Mississippi coast. Overtopping of local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. 2. Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern Louisiana coast and will spread to the Mississippi coast this evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread into portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts in the next few hours. 3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. 4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 29.2N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 37.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 44.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-28 21:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 282058 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 90.6W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 90.6W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 78.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 44.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 90.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-28 15:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281449 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Zeta has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite images, and the eye has been fairly well-defined. Strong upper-level outflow is evident over the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system had continued to strengthen over the past few hours. Peak 700-mb flight level winds were 89 kt, which equates to a maximum surface wind of about 80 kt, and The central pressure has fallen to 976 mb. Zeta still has a few hours to intensify before it begins to move over the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and southwesterly shear is likely to increase by the time the center reaches the coast. Even if a little weakening begins later today, however, Zeta should maintain hurricane strength through landfall. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. In 36 hours or so, the global models clearly depict the system as a frontal wave approaching the United States east coast so the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone. The hurricane has turned northward and is now moving at around 010/16 kt. A strong 500-mb trough moving into Texas will continue to move eastward during the next 36-48 hours. The flow ahead of this trough will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast in 6-12 hours. On Thursday, the cyclone will then move northeastward on the east side of the trough, at an even faster pace, over the southeastern United States. By early Friday, the system should move east- northeastward in the westerlies and into the western Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and generally follows the dynamical model consensus. Given Zeta's acceleration near and after landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. this evening and early Thursday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning later today, with the highest inundation occurring between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. Overtopping of local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts. 3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. 4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 26.9N 91.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [314] [315] [316] [317] [318] [319] [320] [321] [322] [323] [324] [325] [326] [327] [328] [329] [330] [331] [332] [333] next »