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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060231 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 124.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ODALYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-11-05 21:54:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052054 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon. The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-11-05 21:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052054 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds occuring well to the northeast of the center. The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In addition, there is a significant speed difference between the faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about 72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the guidance from 72-120 h. The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba later tonight or on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or so. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 052053 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 87.7W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-11-05 21:52:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY

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