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Devon Energy Lowers Full-year Capex Forecast

2020-10-29 21:35:00| OGI

Devon Energy said it now expects exploration and production capex to be between $950 million and $990 million, $10 million lower at the top end of an earlier forecast, its third reduction to the budget since March.

Tags: energy forecast devon lowers

Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-10-29 15:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the interaction with land. Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the global model predictions. The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 36.5N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-10-29 15:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 291451 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 81.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 180SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 81.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 360SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-10-29 09:40:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290840 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INFORMATION ON ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE FOUND IN COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO WEST OF NAVARRE...FLORIDA...HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NAVARRE TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 85.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 34 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 85.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 200SE 200SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 270SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 85.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 19

2020-10-29 09:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290840 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Zeta weakened to a tropical storm around 0600 UTC when it was located over central Alabama. During the past few hours, the cyclone's structure has degraded further with the center no longer easily apparent in radar images and convection appearing more ragged and asymmetric. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, and that could be a little generous. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 988 mb based on surface observations. The storm continues to accelerate, and the latest initial motion is northeastward at 34 kt. Zeta is expected to race northeastward today in the fast steering flow between a potent mid- to upper-level low to its west and a high pressure ridge to its southeast. This pattern should take the cyclone across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states throughout the day, before emerging over the western Atlantic this evening. An even faster east-northeastward motion is predicted tonight and on Friday until the cyclone dissipates by Friday night. The tropical storm is forecast to weaken a little more during the next several hours as it remains over land, and Zeta will likely become extratropical by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon. However, after that time, the models show the cyclone leveling off in strength or perhaps even re-intensifying over the western Atlantic before it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread well inland across portions of northeastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia today due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains. 2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

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