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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-11-04 03:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-11-03 21:45:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032045 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days. Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin, and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night. Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours. At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period. Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west- northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple of days. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turn northward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portion of the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario, there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. There is still significant spread among the various global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and intensity forecast later in the period. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hours as Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center has crossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-11-03 21:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 032044 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THAT COUNTRY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.5W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.5W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 83.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-11-03 21:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032041 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 The low pressure area well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become significantly better organized today. A curved band of deep convection is noted to the northwest of the low-level center, and a second weaker band is located to its southeast. Satellite-derived wind data indicate the low-level center is still somewhat broad, but it appears to have enough definition to justify starting advisories as a tropical cyclone. Recent ASCAT-B data show numerous 30+ kt wind barbs, with a couple barbs peaking at 33-34 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Considering known under-sampling issues with this data source, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Thus, the system has become a tropical storm, and advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Odalys. Weak to moderate vertical wind shear and sufficient oceanic heat content may support modest strengthening during the next 12 h or so. By 24-36 h, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear associated with an approaching shortwave trough to the northwest, along with intrusions of drier mid-level air, will induce a steady and perhaps rapid weakening trend. The system is forecast to weaken to a depression by 48 h and a remnant low by 96 h, but this could occur even sooner if the stronger shear values noted in the SHIPS guidance are realized. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be devoid of deep convection as early as day 3 of the forecast period. The storms estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. A slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Odalys is steered northwestward by a low- to mid-level ridge centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should gradually slow down and turn westward as this ridge weakens due to the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 72 h, the storm will be steered southwestward by another low- to mid-level ridge building to its northwest. The track models are in decent agreement, and the official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope closest to the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-11-03 21:38:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN

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