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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-11-03 03:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030252 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 82.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 40SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 82.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 82.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 82.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-02 21:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta is an extremely impressive hurricane in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very small eye that is located within a symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. Although objective Dvorak estimates are lower due to the technique's difficulty in analyzing the correct scene type because of the pinhole eye, data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB analysts reached 6.0 on the Dvorak scale at 18Z, which equates to a wind speed of 115 kt. A recent UW/CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate also supports category 4 intensity. As mentioned in previous advisories over the past 24 hours, the environment ahead of Eta is forecast to remain quite favorable with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening, however a difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could begin at any time which could cause Eta's intensity to begin to level off. Since there are no signs of an eyewall replacement yet, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening for another 6 to 12 hours, and it is again at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane has turned west-southwestward with an initial motion estimate of 255/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from this morning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall tonight or early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta is forecast to turn westward, and then west-northwestward while it moves over Central America through midweek. Eta's surface circulation may not survive its trek over the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants. Therefore, the NHC track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the period, however the long range portion of the forecast remains quite uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.5N 82.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-02 21:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 022049 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 82.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-02 15:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 021456 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt. The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass through the center. With the continued improvement in organization since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high. Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-02 15:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 021455 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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