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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-11-04 15:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041444 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then. Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position. While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-11-04 15:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-11-04 13:13:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041212 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Corrected Time Zone Information Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection near the center along with some banding features well displaced to the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity guidance models. Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-11-04 09:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 Eta still has a well-organized cloud pattern while it moves over northern Nicaragua, but there has been a considerable decrease in deep convection as evidenced by the warming cloud tops. Assuming an inland weakening rate as given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Continued weakening will occur over the next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate into remnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could lose its identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulation is likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted to regenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line with the intensity model consensus. However, the global models show the system interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, so the cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics by that time. Eta continues westward, or at about 270/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-northwestward track during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a 500-mb trough/low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the cyclone to move northeastward in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the low. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction which is usually a good performer. There is still significant uncertainty as to the details of the track in the 3- to 5-day time frame. Of more immediate concern are the torrential rains that Eta will continue to produce over portions of Central America. Key Messages: 1. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-11-04 09:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 040854 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BE DOWNGRADED OR DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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