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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-28 03:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280255 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and a more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the basis of the wind data. The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next 6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal system. Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt). The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. A deep cold low (responsible for the southern Plains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta to sharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the southeastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. Similar to the last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 91.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-28 03:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280253 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 91.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 91.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 90.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 91.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-27 21:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272041 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Visible satellite images show that the low-level center of the storm is slightly displaced to the north of the main area of deep convection. Since the organization of the tropical cyclone has not yet improved, the current intensity is held at 55 kt, which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Zeta should move over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment through tomorrow morning, so strengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is likely to regain hurricane intensity within the next 6-12 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance suite. Zeta is expected to interact with a frontal zone and become an extratropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days. After moving off the U.S. east coast, the system is forecast to become absorbed by the same frontal system. Zeta continues to move northwestward, or at about 310/12 kt. The expected large-scale steering flow evolution remains about the same as before. Zeta is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. Then, a vigorous 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north- northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast by late Wednesday. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. The official track forecast was nudged just slightly westward in 24 to 36 hours to be in better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF explicit model fields. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Tonight through Thursday heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-27 21:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 90.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 90.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 200SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 90.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-27 15:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 811 WTNT43 KNHC 271451 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the center of Zeta has moved just offshore of the northern coast of Yucatan. Based on Air Force and NOAA aircraft observations a little while ago, after the cyclone's interaction with the Yucatan, the maximum winds had decreased to near 55 kt. The cloud pattern of the storm is well organized, with a small Central Dense Overcast and numerous banding features. Given this, Zeta is likely to restrengthen as it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico and in a low-shear environment today through tomorrow morning. When the cyclone nears the northern Gulf Coast in 30-36 hours, decreasing oceanic heat content and possibly stronger shear will likely halt the intensification process. The official intensity forecast shows slight weakening near landfall, but Zeta is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it crosses the coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS guidance. The storm continues its generally northwestward motion, or at around 305/12 kt. Zeta will move northwestward to northward around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered east of Florida for the next 24 hours or so. Then, a strong 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward by late Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Aside from some speed differences, the track models are in good agreement and have shown good run-to-run consistency. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and close to the model consensus. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zetas fast forward speed. 3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba today, which will lead to flash flooding in urban areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 21.6N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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