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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-20 22:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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rose
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-20 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm. The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low with all the thunderstorm activity). There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is still expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.3N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201444 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 West-southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 30 kt is pummeling Peter this morning. Just like yesterday morning, the low-level center of the storm is pulling away from the deep convection and is now displaced greater than 80 n mi. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Peter this morning and has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and several SFMR values of 40-45 kt, supporting keeping the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory. Peter refuses to slow down, and for the past several hours has been moving 290/14 kt. This west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States later this week. The model track guidance has shifted slightly left for the 24-72 h time frames, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that direction as well. Otherwise, the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Peter is forecast to remain near the cyclone for the next few days, keeping the storm in a high-shear environment. Therefore, despite being over warm waters the storm is forecast to slowly weaken. If Peter survives the next 72 h, there could be a window of opportunity late in the forecast period for some modest strengthening as the cyclone would have lifted to the north of the upper trough. It should be noted that a vast majority of the GFS ensembles show Peter dissipating later this week as the system opens into a wave. This scenario is plausible, especially if deep convection fails to persist near the center of the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast assumes Peter survives, and closely follows the various intensity consensus solutions. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 235 WTNT21 KNHC 201444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 60.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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