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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-09-20 04:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200250 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 The center of Rose has been very difficult to locate in infrared satellite imagery this evening. However, an earlier ASCAT-A overpass as well as an SSMIS microwave image from around of the time of the previous advisory were both helpful in establishing the initial position, motion, and intensity of the tropical cyclone. Rose's center is located on the eastern edge of the main convective mass due to some southeasterly shear. The ASCAT ambiguity data revealed an area of 30-35 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, so the wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 form both SAB and TAFB. The ASCAT data indicated that Rose is located slightly west of the earlier estimates, and the initial motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move generally northwestward during the next several days around the southwestern and western portions of a subtropical ridge located over the far eastern Atlantic. After day 4, a strong mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to turn northward. The dynamical models are in reasonably good agreement through about 60-72 hours, but there is growing east-to-west (cross-track) spread after that time. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous advisory, and lies close to the various consensus models in deference to the increasing model spread late in the period. Rose has about 24 hours over warm waters and in low vertical wind shear conditions in which to strengthen, and the new NHC intensity forecast for that time is unchanged from before. After 24 hours, increasing westerly shear is likely to result in some gradual weakening. A further increase in shear is anticipated by day 3 as Rose approaches the aforementioned trough. This is likely to result in additional weakening, and Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4. Some of the global model guidance suggests that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and it is possible that Rose will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.3N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion rose storm

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 139 WTNT22 KNHC 200249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-09-20 04:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 236 WTNT21 KNHC 200248 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 58.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-09-19 22:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Over the past few hours deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C have developed near and to the east of the center of Peter. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system earlier provided data during several legs of the flight that confirmed an intensity of 40 kt. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI- numbers from TAFB are consistent with that data, and therefore the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. The vertical wind shear that stripped Peter of its deep convection earlier today is forecast to increase further through tonight and persist for at least a few days. Global model simulated satellite imagery suggests this latest burst of convection will also become removed from the center within several hours, with the cyclone struggling to maintain persistent deep convection throughout much of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, despite being over very warm waters, Peter is forecast to slowly weaken over the next several days. The intensity model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there are some indications, particularly by the GFS, that Peter could open back into a wave within a few days which adds some additional uncertainty to the intensity forecast. Peter's initial motion remains 290/15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue to move in this west-northwestward direction for the next couple of days as it is steered to the south of a subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken in a few days which should cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and turn northwestward. Late in the forecast period a turn to the north and possibly northeast is expected to occur as Peter gets caught in the flow around a large trough to its north. The model guidance has shifted westward beyond day 2, in part due to a faster forward motion. While the timing of the cyclone's turn to the north remains the same, the NHC forecast was shifted to the left beyond 48 h, but still remains to the east of the consensus. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late today into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 18.4N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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