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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192039 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection has increased in coverage near the low-level center during the last 6 hours, while the overall structure of the tropical cyclone has also improved. Based on the improved organization and consensus T-2.5 numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, making Rose the seventeenth named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 and 2020 have had the seventeenth named storm on an earlier date. The 12-hour motion is north-northwest, or 330/14. However, Rose appears to be moving more in a northwest direction during the past few hours. This is probably the start of a northwest motion that should continue through day 4 as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the north is predicted in about 5 days, as Rose comes under the influence of a strong mid-level trough approaching from the northwest. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so, with low wind shear, SSTs near 27C, and sufficient mid-level atmospheric moisture. Therefore, a little more strengthening is shown compared to the previous NHC forecast. The new NHC forecast is in agreement with the various consensus aids, but slightly below the SHIPS model, in deference to the global models which show a weaker cyclone. Westerly wind shear will likely increase in about 36 hours as a strong upper-level trough approaches from the northwest. Given that the cyclone is forecast to remain rather small, it will likely be vulnerable to the higher shear so weakening is forecast in the 36-72 h time period. Beyond day 3, a further increase in wind shear is expected to cause Rose to weaken to a tropical depression. Although not explicitly forecast, it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if the shear is too much for the system to handle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 29.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-19 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191455 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 58.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 60.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.2N 63.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 66.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 67.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N 67.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-19 16:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191454 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 The low-level center of the depression was exposed on visible satellite imagery this morning but recently a new burst has formed. Since the morning scatterometer passes missed the depression, the intensity is held at 30 kt based on consensus T-2.0 values from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 330/12. The cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track, and the new prediction lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track models. Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so, with wind shear forecast to drop off later today. Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening during the next 24 hours, and is close to the lower half of the intensity guidance envelope, near the weaker global models. This forecast could be conservative, since SSTs will be near 27C and mid-level atmospheric moisture will be enough to support intensification. By 36-48 hours, the southwesterly shear will increase, which should end the opportunity for strengthening, and will likely cause slow weakening. The models hold onto this system through the 5 day period, but it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if the shear is too much for the system to handle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.2N 28.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191450 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 28.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 28.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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