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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-09-12 16:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 121458 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The deep convection associated with Rene has gradually decreased over the past several hours, with only a few sporadic patches remaining. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 28 kt in the northeastern quadrant, while the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest the system is 30 kt. Therefore the initial intensity is being lowered to 30 kt. The depression is forecast to battle dry air for the next several days, with SHIPS guidance indicating that the mid-level relative humidity will decrease to under 40 percent in a few days. Also, it appears that there will be increasing subsidence over the system starting in a couple of days due to a ridge building to the northwest of the cyclone. Neither of these conditions bode well for maintaining organized deep convection. And, with it anticipated that the depression will struggle to maintain convection it is expected to slowly spin down over the next several days. The official forecast shows Rene degenerating into a remnant low in 5 days, but that timing is low confidence, as the system may generate just enough convection over warm waters to continue to be classified as a tropical cyclone longer than that. The alternative scenario is that the system could become a remnant low or open into a trough even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one mainly due to the decrease in initial intensity, and is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus values. Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-09-12 16:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 121457 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 44.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 44.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-09-12 16:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121456 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Paulette's structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly. Most of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone reconstitutes itself. For now, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours. Strengthening is anticipated to continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is possible due to increasing southwesterly shear. The intensity guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles, and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above the intensity consensus. Paulette is likely to be strengthening while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours, and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours. Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the subtropical ridge located due north of the storm. The ridge may strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the northwestward motion by late Sunday. After that time, an approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The track guidance is well clustered and has not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-09-12 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 57.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-09-12 11:03:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 958 WTNT44 KNHC 120903 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Tropical Depression Nineteen was close to tropical storm strength when it moved ashore in Miami-Dade county just after 06Z. The central pressure had dropped to near 1004 mb, and the radar showed winds of 45-50 kt above the surface just to the northeast of the center, associated with a strong convective burst. However, there were no surface observations of 35-kt sustained winds, and the highest reported gusts were in the 35-40 kt range. Based on the available data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. It should be noted that since landfall, the strong convective burst near the low-level center has weakened considerably. The cyclone has turned left during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/8 kt. The subtropical ridge extending from the southeastern United States eastward over the Atlantic should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should result in a northwestward motion through from Sunday night into the middle portion of next week, with the cyclone expected to reach the northern Gulf coast around the 96 h point. The latest track guidance now has the cyclone responding more strongly to the trough and turning northward by 120 h. The new forecast track is shifted a little south of the previous track through 72 h based on the initial position and motion. At 120 h, the new track is nudged to the east of the old track, but it still lies to the west of the consensus models. The depression is currently experiencing some northerly vertical wind shear, and the latest global model runs are showing more shear affecting the system as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico than earlier. However, since the cyclone is going to be over very warm sea surface temperatures and in a moist environment, the intensity guidance still shows it strengthening to near hurricane strength, or stronger, before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Due to the uncertainty about the amount of shear, the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the various intensity consensus models. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce isolated to scattered flash flooding across portions of west-central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across Central Florida through Sunday. Scattered flash flooding is also possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through Tuesday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over portions of the southern Florida Peninsula today. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 25.6N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 12/1800Z 26.1N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 13/0600Z 26.9N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 27.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 28.7N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 29.3N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 29.6N 88.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/0600Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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