Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 24

2020-09-13 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 130233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-12 23:03:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122103 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being set at 30 kt. The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCN multimodel consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.4N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion twenty tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-09-12 22:56:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122056 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Sally continues to gradually become better organized, with developing convective banding features primarily over the southern portion of the circulation at this time. Upper-level outflow is still rather limited over the northern semicircle, possibly due to a weak upper low near the Georgia/Florida border. The latter feature is likely to soon move away from the area, however. Based on earlier scatterometer passes that showed tropical-storm-force winds over the Straits of Florida, the advisory intensity remains 35 kt. With very warm waters and a moist tropospheric environment ahead of Sally, strengthening seems likely. Some increase in westerly shear over the northern Gulf in 48-72 hours could at least slow down the intensification process around that time. The official intensity forecast is not far from the latest model consensus and a little above the previous forecast. Fixes from an Air Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft, radar, satellite, and surface observations indicate a slow, generally westward motion of about 280/6 kt. A weakening mid-level high pressure system to the northeast of Sally should cause a generally west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next few days. Because of the weakening steering currents, the cyclone should move rather slowly while it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. However, there is expected to be enough of a narrow north-south oriented ridge to the east of Sally in 3-4 days to steer the cyclone northward across the coast. The official track forecast has been nudged just slightly west of the previous one and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical track model consensus predictions. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life threatening storm surge is possible along the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas outside the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. 3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across portions of southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida through Sunday. Flash, urban, and minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast from Sunday through the middle of next week. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible early next week in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over portions of the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 25.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-09-12 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122047 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 24

2020-09-12 22:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122046 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But it won't be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next 6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get a much better handle on Paulette's maximum winds and structure once the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this evening. The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through 5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no significant changes were made from the morning forecast. As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at 28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions, showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 28.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] [452] [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] next »