Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 26

2020-09-13 10:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130850 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 60.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 90SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 60.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 60.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130247 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion twenty tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-09-13 04:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number twenty advisory tropical

 

Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-09-13 04:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130240 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season. The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance suite at all forecast hours. Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-09-13 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130238 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 59.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [443] [444] [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] [452] [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] next »