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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 131449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 61.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 61.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-13 11:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130941 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Corrected for inland status at 60 and 72 hourrs A large burst of convection has formed near the center of Sally this morning, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the storm is strengthening. Peak flight-level winds were up to 57 kt at 925 mb, with believable SFMR winds of up to 45 kt, and pressure falling a couple of mb to 1001. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt for this advisory. While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model can't be dismissed. Sally is moving west-northwestward at a faster speed this morning. The biggest change to note is that almost every model has shifted westward (faster) due to narrow ridging developing across the northern Gulf Coast between the storm and an exiting mid-latitude trough. The flow gets quite weak near and after landfall, so the cyclone should slow down on Tuesday/Wednesday and turn northward. After that time, the next trough should induce a faster northeastward motion by day 5. The new track is shifted westward between 30-45 n mi near the coast of Louisiana, and is still east of the GFS and ECMWF models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80-90 miles and the average intensity error is around 10-15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats. KEY MESSAGES: 1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-13 11:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130940 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS AT 60 AND 72 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA NORTHEAST TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.0W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.0W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-09-13 11:02:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Recent scatterometer data showed an area of 30-35 kt winds within about 80 n mi of the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E in the southwestern quadrant. Based on this data, along with 35-40 kt intensity estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Karina with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Satellite imagery show that the system is still being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, with the low-level center exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass. The initial motion is now 310/10. The global models forecast a mid-level ridge to build westward to the north of Karina in a day or two, causing the cyclone to move west- northwestward. A more westward motion is expected near the end of the forecast period as a weakening Karin is steered more by the low-level trade winds. The track guidance is in fair agreement with this scenario, although there is some spread in the forward speed, possibly due differences in how Karina interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. The new forecast track will follow the forward speed of the consensus models and has only minor adjustments from the previous track. The forecast track takes the center of Karin over cooler water, with the system crossing the 25-26C isotherms in 48-72 h. Present indications are that the shear will decrease a little before the 72 h point, so the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during that time. After 72 h, the cooler water and dry air entrainment should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-09-13 11:00:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

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