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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 28

2020-09-13 22:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132039 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Paulette has recovered from the dry air intrusion that was eroding the eastern eyewall this morning. A ring of deep convection with cloud tops ranging from about -50 to -65 C now completely surrounds a partially cleared eye. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the hurricane earlier this afternoon measured peak flight-level winds of 84 kt, which reduces to about 67 kt at the surface. However, since that time there has been steady improvement in the satellite presentation, and the latest Dvorak satellite T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now at 4.5, supporting increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory. Paulette is expected to remain in a low-shear environment over warm SSTs for the next 24-36 h, so gradual strengthening is likely during that time. Around 48 h from now, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase ahead of an approaching mid- upper level trough. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 72 h, Paulette is expected to be over waters less that 26 degrees C and should remain over cooler waters for the remainder of the forecast period. Around that same time, global models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned trough. This should induce a gradual transition of Paulette to an extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed by 120 h, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and shows Paulette continuing to strengthen as it passes near or over Bermuda early Monday. The forecast also shows Paulette becoming a major hurricane by Monday night, after the cyclone has moved away from Bermuda. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is moving northwestward at 11 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. This northwest motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda Monday morning. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of the approaching trough. Later on in the forecast period a slower eastward motion is indicated once the trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast was nudged only slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in agreement with tightly clustered global and regional track guidance. Tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda in the next couple of hours, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.6N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 28

2020-09-13 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 132038 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 313 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-09-13 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132036 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A midday ASCAT pass revealed that Karina still has an elongated circulation and is likely still attached to the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The center is also displaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to ongoing moderate northeasterly shear. The ASCAT data confirmed that the storm currently has maximum winds of 40 k, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds located over the southern semicircle. With the shear not expected to decrease from its current magnitude, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so while Karina remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is now the highest intensity shown by any of the intensity models. Colder waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should induce gradual weakening after day 2, with Karina likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by day 4. Karina turned a little bit to the left today but still has a west-northwestward heading (290/10 kt). A mid-level ridge located to the north should keep Karina on a west-northwestward trajectory with some reduction in forward speed through day 4. Once it weakens to a remnant low, Karina is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. There is some north-south divergence among the track models during Karina's expected remnant low stage, but the overall guidance envelope has not shifted. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-13 22:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 132035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-09-13 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression's center is a little closer to the deep convection compared to this morning, but the overall structure has not changed significantly. Based on this morning's ASCAT pass, and recent Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northerly shear over the system has been analyzed to have decreased since this morning (now around 10 kt), which is probably why the center is closer to the convection. The shear is forecast to decrease further, and once the depression becomes more detached from the ITCZ/monsoon trough, it is expected to go through a significant phase of strengthening as it heads west toward higher oceanic heat content and a more unstable atmosphere. As discussed this morning, the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the depression will strengthen by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days, which is 10 times higher than the climatological mean. And, all three regional hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC), as well as the HCCA aid, show the cyclone becoming a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now explicitly shows major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5. The motion remains west-northwestward (290/10 kt), with the depression located south of a large mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic. This feature should continue driving the system westward or west-northwestward for the next 2 days. After that time, the ridge is expected to shift northward, causing the potentially strengthening hurricane to move a little slower toward the northwest. Most of the track models are clustered close together, although the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the ECMWF model is a little slower and on the right side of the envelope. The new NHC track forecast has not moved much from the previous prediction and now lies closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 12.7N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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