Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131455 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to- moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5. There are two main points that suggest this forecast could potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2. the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological mean. The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA and HCCA solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 12.3N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion twenty tropical

 

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-13 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 131455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number twenty advisory tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-09-13 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Karina's center is a little bit closer to the deep convection this morning, resulting in intensity estimates increasing slightly. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and an overnight SATCON estimate of 42 kt, Karina's initial intensity is assumed to be 40 kt. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is not expected to change appreciably during the next few days. However, Karina will remain over ocean waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 48 hours, which should allow for a gradual intensification trend during that period. The shear is forecast to lighten up in 3-4 days, but by then Karina will be over colder waters and in a drier, more stable environment, which should induce weakening. Karina is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is generally close to the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows weakening starting a little sooner than before. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest (300/9 kt), south of a mid-level ridge axis which extends from northwestern Mexico southwestward over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Karina on this general heading with a very gradually decreasing forward speed through day 4. Once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. No significant changes in the track forecast were required compared to the previous prediction, and the official forecast lies generally close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-09-13 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131452 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131450 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the aircraft. Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon. Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C. The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [440] [441] [442] [443] [444] [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] [452] [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] next »