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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-09-13 10:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 404 WTNT43 KNHC 130858 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time, with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. The strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is 325/12. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast. There is little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.2N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-09-13 10:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 130858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 47.1W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 47.1W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 46.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-09-13 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130853 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity will also remain unchanged at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and 5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track. Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5 due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion twenty tropical

Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-09-13 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 791 WTNT25 KNHC 130851 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 35.5W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 35.5W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number twenty advisory tropical

Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 26

2020-09-13 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130851 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Over the past 6 hours, conventional and passive microwave satellite data indicate that very little change to Paulette's overall convective cloud pattern and inner-core structure has occurred. A recent GMI pass indciated that the inner-core convection remains somewhat disheveled due to a narrow but pronounced band of dry air having penetrated the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, the low-level eye feature remains intact with a diameter of at least 30 nmi. Given the little change in structure since the previous reconnaissance mission, the intensity is being maintained at 65 kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Paulette later this morning to provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on Paulette passing over or near Bermuda during the 24-36 hour period as the cyclone rounds a sharp east-to-west oriented subtropical ridge located near and due east of Bermuda. After passing Bermuda and moving north of the ridge in about 36 hours, Paulette is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front. There is one important feature to mention -- the official forecast track is west of the latest 0600 UTC interpolated models due to the interpolated model tracks taking the center of Paulette at least 30 nmi east of Bermuda. In contrast, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are less than 6 nmi apart at 12-48 hours, and that consensus brings the hurricane across or just west of Bermuda in about 30 hours. Therefore, the new NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just west of the tightly packed NHC guidance envelope. Environmental conditions appear favorable to Paulette to strengthen during the next 72 hours or so, with only occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air briefly interrupting the intensification process. The ragged inner core structure will likely delay intensification this morning, but by the this afternoon and continuing into Monday, the vertical shear is forecast by the global models to decrease to near zero, which should allow for significant strengthening to occur. In fact, it highly probable that Paulette will continue to intensify as the hurricane passes over Bermuda. By 48 hours when the hurricane is expected to be north of Bermuda, baroclinic interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough is forecast to aid in the intensification process with Paulette possibly becoming a major hurricane around 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt should gradually weaken the cyclone. It is possible that by 96 hours or so, Paulette could merge with a frontal system and become a powerful extratropical low. For now, however, Paulette is forecast to remain just ahead of the front within the warm sector of a flat frontal wave. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is near the upper end of intensity guidance throughout the 120-h forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 29.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

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