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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 24

2020-09-12 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 122045 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 58.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 58.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 58.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-09-12 22:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122041 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 33.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-09-12 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 122034 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder development. Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression is expected to remain within an area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual weakening over the next couple of days. While the shear is forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest weakening is likely to continue. The global models also weaken the system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day 5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner. Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress of the cyclone. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow early next week. The overall guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.3N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-09-12 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 122032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-12 16:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 121459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES, AND STORM SURGE WATCHES, COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 87.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.6N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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