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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 10:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 20.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 20.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 19.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 20.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of Julio Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-07 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070839 TCDEP5 Remnants Of Julio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 Moderate easterly shear has continued to take a toll on the compact tropical cyclone. In fact, recent satellite imagery and ASCAT data indicate that the small circulation has opened up into a trough of low pressure. Therefore, Julio has dissipated and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Julios demise occurred much quicker than forecast, owing to the difficulty in predicting the intensity (both up and down) of small tropical cyclones. The remnants are moving westward around the northern portion of a broad area of low pressure to the southwest of Socorro Island, and the remnants should be absorbed within that system later today. The global models indicate that moderate to strong easterly shear will persist over the larger low pressure area in which Julio is being absorbed, and this will likely prevent significant development of that system over the next few days. This is last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.5N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Julio Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-07 10:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070838 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 112.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-07 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070837 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Tropical Depression Seventeen is a large tropical cyclone, with its circulation evident several hundred miles from its center. An area of deep convection has developed tonight just over and to the east of its center with cloud top temperatures as low as -80 degrees C. However, there appears to be some dry air in the northwestern portion of the cyclone's circulation limiting convection there. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt over the past 12 hours. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the 5-day forecast period, with some increase in forward speed over the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. The overall guidance shifted slightly to the north through day 3 and the latest NHC forecast lies in between the previous one and the consensus track guidance through this time period. For days 3 through 5, the forecast track is little changed from the previous one and is in good agreement with the fairly tightly clustered track guidance. Other than some dry air in the vicinity of the depression, the overall environment looks favorable for strengthening over the next few days. However, due to the large size of the circulation, strengthening may occur more slowly than what might be expected from a more compact cyclone. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that time. By 72 h, increasing vertical wind shear should limit further intensification, and may cause some weakening to occur. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the previous one and the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-07 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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