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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-09-07 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071433 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Tropical Depression Eighteen is very near tropical storm strength. Satellite images show banding features gradually organizing on the west side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds around or slightly above 30 kt in the bands to the northwest of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are lower, however. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, but it seems very likely that the depression will become a tropical storm later today. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A subtropical ridge situated to the north of the system is expected to build westward across the eastern Atlantic during the next 3 or 4 days. This steering pattern should keep the system on a general west-northwestward course during that time. By the weekend, the depression will likely be moving into a weakness in the ridge, which should cause a turn to the northwest. The models are in good agreement during the next few days, but there is increasing spread in the guidance by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the various consensus models. The depression will likely strengthen during the next few days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, relatively warm waters, and a moist airmass. There will likely be an increase in shear by the end of the week and this weekend, which should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce some weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 21.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-09-07 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 21.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 21.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 20.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 21.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-07 14:23:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071223 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west. and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-07 13:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 480 WTNT43 KNHC 071156 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-07 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 369 WTNT43 KNHC 070852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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